Tag Archives: debt

Risk is inevitably mispriced when unprecedented intervention suppresses risk [and, as such, the] policies that appear to have been successful for the past four years may continue to appear successful for a year or two longer but that very success comes at a steep, and as yet unpaid, price in suppressed systemic risk, cost, and consequence. [This article identifies 8] key dynamics that will continue to play out over the next two to three years [and an] understanding of the eventual consequence of such influential trends - that risk is inevitably mispriced when unprecedented intervention suppresses risk. Words: 1299

Why are both debtors and creditors willing to build a status quo of massive unprecedented debt? [After all, the delusions of] creditors that debt is wealth and should never be liquidated, and of debtors that debt is an easy or free lunch have been smashed by the juggernaut of history many times before...[and] I think they will soon be smashed again. [Let me explain.] Words: 1150

Households with credit card debt carry $16,000 at an average rate of 15% and, given that some households have little credit card debt, you can imagine how high the debt is for others.. Imagine, $16,000, but that is actually down by 17% as the grand American household deleveraging continues. [Be that as it may, credit card debt is still excessive with all ages and all income groups. Here are the facts.] Words: 760

A major crisis is coming in the first half of 2011 and it could cause a worldwide financial disaster, global market crashes and the destruction of wealth that will make the popping of the dot-com and housing bubbles feel like a mild inconvenience! Why? Because, quite simply, America is playing a dangerous game of “chicken” with its national debt - and the ramifications are extraordinary. Words: 1475

Investors are beginning to understand that the U.S. dollar is not the safe haven they perceived it was a few years ago and concurrently, neither are U.S. Treasury notes and bonds. Given the American national debt and deficit problems, from both a fundamental and technical perspective, the U.S. greenback has the potential for considerable downside. Ergo and by axiom, gold bullion has significant upside potential to $1,500 per ounce over the short to mid-term time horizon of 1 – 2 years and $4,000 per ounce over the longer term. Words: 1104

A demographic stampede is about to pulverize American society. Eighty million retirees—the baby boom generation—are rapidly heading into their retirement years and, according to a recent survey, Americans have less money than ever. Being so unprepared can only mean a very unhappy "retirement" unless they pull their heads out of the sand and do something about it before it is too late. Words: 807

When Bernanke announced back in 2009 that he saw "green shoots" in the U.S. economy, it was a green light for global investors to start dipping their toes back in the water. Gradually investors started feeling better about the world and as they felt better, they started taking on more risk. It was a shift in focus, away from the mandate of "return OF capital" back toward one of "return ON capital." So, what's in store for 2010? Will it be risk-aversion or risk-taking? Words: 794

This boom will be pleasant while it lasts. It might go on for a number of years, in much the same way many people enjoyed the 1920s. Be that as it may, we have failed to heed the warnings made plain by the successive crises of the past 30 years, and this failure was made clear during 2008–09. The most worrisome part is that we are nearing the end of our fiscal and monetary ability to bail out the system. In 2008–09 we were lucky that major countries had the fiscal space available to engage in stimulus and that monetary policy could use quantitative easing effectively. In the future, there are no guarantees that the size of the available policy response will match the magnitude of the shock to the credit system. Words: 2262