Tag Archives: financial forecasters

Recently I discovered a website which tracks pundits in finance (and politics and sports). Check it out to see how many of the calls and predictions of your favorite prognosticators have turned out to be true. You’ll be surprised and, no doubt, disappointed!

Even the foremost experts in most fields are no better than a flip of the coin at predicting what’s going to happen in their particular area of expertise. In fact, in one study those with 80% confidence in their forecasts were only right 45% of the time, so even worse than a coin flip.