Tag Archives: fiscal cliff

...Fiscal policy, both in the U.S. and in Europe, has already been a drag on economic growth, and it’s extremely likely to continue to be one as politicians begin addressing concerns about long-term debt burdens. The debate about the fiscal cliff deal might revolve around the preferred paths to reducing the nation's long-term debt, but it also will determine just how much fiscal policy will limit growth over the coming months and years. What’s really at stake, in the near term at least, is the answer to two important and interrelated questions: How dysfunctional is our political leadership and how bad is our economy going to be next year? Words: 610

Heard about the "Fiscal Cliff" lately? How many times have you heard it mentioned in the last few hours? Is the media coverage about the "Fiscal Cliff" causing investors to look or focus in the wrong direction for clues to the market's next significiant move?

...With the fiscal cliff on the horizon — more than $600 billion in spending cuts and tax increases coming January 2 — lawyer and certified public accountant Leon LaBrecque predicts in a Bankrate analysis that Americans could face a 17% increase in their 2013 federal income taxes, in addition to increases in state, local and property taxes and, if the nation slips into another recession, they’ll see a significant dent in their portfolios. [That being said, below are some suggestions on how to minimize such an impact by taking some evasive action before the beginning of the new year.] Words: 576

This article compares the 2012 year-end price forecasts for the S&P 500 from leading research sources with where the index is today, what various statistically generated price probabilities say about the year-end price [and, as such, how we plan to allocate our assets in the interim.] Words: 1445

In his effort to get lawmakers to mobilize, Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke coined the term “fiscal cliff” in a testimony before the House Financial Services Committee on February 29, 2012. Investors consider it to be one of the biggest...risks that could cause markets to crater but since February, analysts have pointed to a host of other “cliffs” that threatened to destabilize the markets and the economy. Here are 8 others that people are talking about most. Words: 1140

It's easy to find analysts and investors who are certain that a deal [to avoid the fiscal cliff] will be reached, or at least that the can will be kicked down the road to buy more time. It's also easy to find more pessimistic views that are based on the lack of cooperation in the past, and a deeply polarized country and political system. However, I think many are missing the point, which is that austerity is coming to America - taxes are going up and government spending will be reduced - [and. as such,] the United States is likely to face a recession and market correction in 2013, regardless of whether or not a compromise is reached over the Fiscal Cliff. Words: 970

If Congress addresses the issue by maintaining the current tax and spending policies we will get more of the same economy we have experienced for the past three years (all else being equal). [That being said,] what if Congress goes over the fiscal cliff hit? This blog post is designed to asses the impact. Words: 1362

The (relative) impact on economies around the world would be major but particularly on Canada, Mexico and to a lesser extent on some other economies in a precarious state –- the UK, Germany, China, and Japan. [The details are illustrated, country by country, in a map below. Take a look.]

The term “fiscal cliff” was first coined by Ben Bernanke in early 2012, and it refers to the roughly $718 billion that will be withdrawn in some way, shape or form (4.6% of our nation’s annual economic output) from the economy in 2013. This will occur in the form of tax increases and federal spending cuts. If nothing is done, and all the scheduled tax increases and spending cuts go into effect on January 1, the Congressional Budget Office estimates that the economy will contract slightly in 2013. Other estimates (including ours) show a much deeper recession would be likely. Words: 940

Merrill conducts a periodic survey of US institutional money managers. One area the survey focuses on is a set of questions on the so-called "tail risks", the less probable but potentially devastating events that negatively impact financial asset valuations. Here are the survey results from September and October of this year. Words: 535