Tag Archives: interest rate risk

Institutional investors are trying to micro-manage every minor blip in the markets instead of taking steps now to prepare for any downturn by asking themselves the following questions, determining the right answers and implementing them in preparation for such an eventuality.

If yields on U.S. Treasury bonds keep rising, things are going to get very messy. What we are ultimately looking at is a sell-off very similar to 2008, only this time we will have to deal with rising interest rates at the same time. The conditions for a "perfect storm" are rapidly developing, and if something is not done we could eventually have a credit crunch unlike anything that we have ever seen before in modern times. Let me explain.

Interest rates have been manipulated to keep them extremely low in an attempt to stimulate the economy but...unless deficits are dramatically reduced.... interest rates will eventually rise and government interest expense will double or triple from the amounts being paid today. That potentially triggers a debt death spiral, where government has to borrow more than otherwise expected. It also raises the credit risk and could ratchet interest rates up again. It has happened to Greece, Portugal, Spain and other European countries already this year and could well happen in the U.S. too. Words: 595

Interest rates have been manipulated to keep them extremely low in an attempt to stimulate the economy but...unless deficits are dramatically reduced.... interest rates will eventually rise and government interest expense will double or triple from the amounts being paid today. That potentially triggers a debt death spiral, where government has to borrow more than otherwise expected. It also raises the credit risk and could ratchet interest rates up again. It has happened to Greece, Portugal, Spain and other European countries already this year and could well happen in the U.S. too. Words: 595

For those who think bonds are a safe place to be, you might want to reconsider. In addition to rising sovereign risk (yes, for the U.S. as well as other countries), there is interest rate risk....[should you not] hold it to maturity. If interest rates rise, then the value of your bond falls (Bonds can produce capital gains/losses, just like stocks.) and the possibility of interest rates rising is pretty good. Words: 530

In a search for safety and income, investors are stampeding into the apparent safety of government bonds and bond mutual funds. Over the last year, bonds have been purchased in record amounts despite historic low interest rate levels. It is likely that many of these investors do not understand the risks in bonds. These investors, with a false sense of security, are unknowingly setting themselves up for another rough rollercoaster ride ahead. Words: 599

With the global economy growing, with federal deficits exploding, and with central banks printing money like there’s no tomorrow, there can be little doubt that rising markets will also bring rising interest rates. Who gets hurt when interest rates rise? The answer is all borrowers with debts coming due because they must pay more to roll them over and all lenders who have extended medium- or long-term credit at fixed rates because they suffer an immediate loss in the market value of their loans. Words: 928