Tag Archives: irrational exuberance

the US Government is on a trajectory to default on their obligations, and the same can realistically be said for the UK and Japan. The answer put forward by the US, UK and Japanese governments? Quantitative Easing and 0% interest rates. Have they learned nothing from the past decade?! Words: 2355

The majority of individual investors base their investing decisions on two emotions that rule the market - fear and greed - and, as a result, end up losing money more often...[than making] money. That being said, if you can keep your emotions in check you can take advantage of other investors emotions - irrational exuberance - and make yourself some easy money. It's a surefire way to make loads of money investing in the stock market.

To make sense of stocks, bonds and currencies, you need to discern some of the madness (convincingly irrational behavior by policy makers) that’s unfolding in front of our eyes. We assume no responsibility if you turn mad yourself in reading this analysis. Here it is.

The ultra-wealthy are able to stay ultra-wealthy for a reason, and they are usually a step or two ahead of most of the rest of us, so do they know something that we don't? Yes, like any rational person should be able to see, they realize this financial bubble is going to end very, very badly and are making moves to protect themselves from the inevitable chaos that is coming.

We estimate that a 'fair price' for the market is a Shiller PE of around 16. With the market at close to a Shiller PE of 26, the market is overvalued by about 60%. Now is not a historically good time to initiate a position in the S&P500.

It wasn't so long ago that irrational exuberance over the housing market had seized investors' logic, and the same thing is happening to US stocks right now. Fair-weather investors are abandoning gold equities and jumping into the US market in the hopes of making an easy buck, just as people bought property near the housing peak hoping to flip it before those adjustable-rate mortgages reset... My advice: don't gamble your savings on the hope that there will be a greater fool who will come along and buy your inflated assets at even higher prices.

"The end is near" has been the bears' dire prediction since the start of the bull market on March 9, 2009. This year's rally to new record highs suggests that the bears have lost their credibility and that investors are becoming increasingly convinced that the end is actually still far off.

Hot headlines about the Dow “storming back soon,” soaring to the “Next Stop, Dow 20,000” is nothing more than a new cycle of irrational exuberance. After losing an inflation-adjusted 20% the last decade, a prediction that the Dow will roar back 80% anytime soon is misleading, pure speculative hype. Reminds me of book titles like “Dow 36,000” and “Dow 100,000” back in 1999 - and memories of those mutual funds selling with absurd multiples over 40, with annual returns in excess of 100%. Worse than the tulip-bulb mania of the 1590s. What’s really roaring back is hype, happy talk and irrational exuberance. Words: 531

We have had massive monetary creation for decades now which we have finally come to the day of reckoning. We do not know if the top will be next month, next year or even later but we certainly are getting to the top where we cannot buy our way out of the problem through a new stimulus injection... The truth is that a terrible, deflationary depression is probably starting in the coming months. Words: 1581

The crucial factor in the crash of 2008 is that it was not due to some exogenous event or extraneous shock but by the system itself. That means that the prevailing paradigm, the efficient market hypothesis basically has been proven wrong. As such, the task ahead is not to restart the economy and the financial system but to create a new system because the old system has broken down. Words: 1285