Sunday , 25 October 2020


Tag Archives: Presidential Cycle

Average Annual Returns During 4-Yr. Presidential Cycle

…Politicians try to juice up the economy during election years to improve their chances of re-election…but after the election is over and the next election is far away, they reverse the course and restrict the fiscal and monetary stimuli. Thus, major elections produce economic booms and busts, as politicians try to create an artificial boom before every election and take advantage …

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How Will the Markets Perform For the Balance of 2014?

The S&P 500 just extended its winning streak to seven straight quarters, and it's reasonable to wonder just how long it can continue...[That being said, however,] investors often enjoy a strong wind at their back in the fourth quarter, based on seasonal patterns and stock market history. Will 2014 be different [or will, as history suggests,] investors find a shiny new quarter during the next three months? [This article looks at these patterns to come to a better understanding of how the markets likely will perform for the balance of 2014.]

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These Indicators Suggest Stock Market Returns Are “Too Good To Be True”

Current macro conditions indicate that we are in a sweet spot for equity returns...that global growth is continuing and there is little or no tail risk in the immediate future. It's time to get long equities...but I have this nagging feeling that these market conditions are too good to be true. If you look, there are a number of technical and fundamental clouds on the horizon.

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History Suggests Stocks Should Go Up Approx. 18% in 2011! Here's Why

There are plenty of reasons to be concerned about the U.S. economy in 2011 [but not for U.S. stocks if the history of] the Presidential Cycle is any indication. The third year of a president’s [four year] term is typically the strongest producing an average annual gain of 14.12% for the S&P 500 and, under Democratic leadership, that number moves even higher to an average gain of 17.7%! Words: 436

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