Tag Archives: recession

The Federal Reserve's recent 50-basis point rate cut has bolstered optimism for a "soft landing," pushing the Dow, S&P 500, and NASDAQ to new highs. While the move has alleviated uncertainty, investors remain wary of potential economic risks, including a slowing labor market and lingering inflation concerns. Despite the positive market reaction, some experts warn that market volatility could resurface if inflation picks up or the labor market weakens further. With the Fed expected to announce more rate cuts later this year, all eyes are on the November meeting for clues on future economic policy.

We often take things far too seriously when looking at the world of high finance, the global economy and the ins and outs of investing. Lighten up and relax. See the world for what it really is through the eyes (and words) of some individuals who can do just that.

Central banking makes it possible for the government to expand the money supply by any amount, at any time deemed necessary and once (hyper)inflation is publicly seen as being the lesser evil of all options available for the government meeting its debt service, it cannot be dismissed out of hand that (hyper)inflation would be the consequence of an unsustainable debt-to-GDP ratio.

Within the recent retracement of the U.S. currency there has been endless speculation about the future role of the dollar as the world’s primary reserve currency. Moreover, there has even been conjecture that the dollar will no longer exist at some point in the near future but any case made for the vulnerability of the dollar falls short when it comes to naming alternatives. Words: 631

It's impossible to pinpoint when and where the next crisis will spring from but, looking at the actual U.S. consumer debt data today, it's not likely that consumer debt will be the trigger point of the next major capital market meltdown...

Would you have appreciated a single number that could have given you a clear and unmistakable warning before the tech stock bubble collapsed? How about an unequivocal mathematical warning in 2006 that major financial trouble was on the way, well before the problems of 2007 and 2008? Well, while these warnings (called yield curve inversions) are quite uncommon, having occurred only three times in the last 35 years- followed relatively quickly by a recession - but are back in the news again, because we just may be nearing another inversion.

The unwinding of the "Central Bank Bubble" will be worse than either the Dot.Com Bubble or the Housing Bubble. It seems like most investors continue to show apathy even with the warnings by us and quite a few others of the "unintended consequences" of the central banks doing things that have never been done before. Those investors are in good company because it appears to us that the leaders of the major central banks of the world do not have any idea of the "unintended consequences" either.

This article addresses what the mainstream press has been ignoring, and why the Fed is reluctant to raise interest rates.

Looking at hard data from the bond market can help with the assessment of recession probabilities. So what is the current Treasury yield spread suggesting is the probability of a recession this year?

A currency war is a battle, supposedly an economic policy to cheapen a country's currency compared to that of others, to promote exports but the real reason, the one that’s less talked about, is that countries actually want to import inflation - a way of creating monetary ease and importing inflation. Let me explain.