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Monday , 1 March 2021

Tag Archives: Robert Shiller

Gibson’s Paradox and the Price of Gold (+3K Views)

One of the most controversial topics in investing is the price of gold with many goldbugs saying that gold will soon break $2,000, then $5,000 and then $10,000 a troy ounce but, frankly, how can anyone reasonably calculate what the price of gold should be when they don't understand the factors that drive gold? So let me explain.

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Motivated Stock Pickers CAN Beat the Market! Here’s How (+3K Views)

What hope can there be for motivated stock pickers to outperform the low-cost index funds that simply mechanically track the market? Well - in spite of the absurd rise of the Nobel-acclaimed, and highly promoted, Efficient Market Hypothesis that claims that individual investors can't beat the market - it turns out there is plenty! [Let me explain.] Words: 1574

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14 Prognoses of Doom & Gloom for Economy Starting in ’14 (+2K Views)

Some of the most respected prognosticators in the financial world are warning that what is coming in 2014 and beyond is going to shake America to the core. Many of the quotes that you are about to read are from individuals that actually predicted the sub-prime mortgage meltdown and the financial crisis of 2008 ahead of time so they have a track record of being right. Does that guarantee that they will be right about what is coming in 2014? Of course not. In fact, as you will see below, not all of them agree about exactly what is coming next but, without a doubt, all of their forecasts are quite ominous.

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Shiller & Siegel Forecasts of Future Real Stock Market Returns Differ Considerably (+2K Views)

By smoothing out the effect of the business cycle on corporate earnings, investors get a truer picture of how expensively or cheaply stocks are priced. Yale professor Robert Shiller has popularized this concept and packaged it as the Shiller P/E ratio, alternatively known as the cyclically-adjusted P/E (CAPE) ratio, and it has become a widely followed and efficacious stock market valuation measure. Currently the ratio is standing at a 21.4 (approximately 30% higher than its long-term average) causing many value investors to adopt a cautious stance toward US stocks. [Let me explain more fully.] Words: 690

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Both Stocks and Bonds are Expensive! Here's Why

[We have determined that] the current cyclically adjusted real yield of 5.28% is telling us that the stock market is expensive, at least by historical standards. [In addition,] ...we have also determined that, relative to bonds, the real spread between stocks and bonds is 7.2% in terms of yields, i.e., stocks relative to bonds seem cheap. If stocks are expensive, and stocks relative to bonds seem cheap, this implies that bonds are also expensive. Everything is expensive! [Let me show you the math that confirms just that.] Words: 1590

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