Tag Archives: Robert Shiller

The Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings Ratio, abbreviated as CAPE, or the more precise P/E10, closely tracks the real (inflation-adjusted) price of the S&P Composite. After dropping to 13.3 in March 2009, the P/E10 has rebounded to 23.0. The historical average is 16.39 raising concerns about the current price level of the S&P Composite. Let me explain. Words: 1298

Secular stock market declines have ranged in length from over 19 years to as few as 3 [and] the current decline is now in its 10th year. Every time the P/E10 has fallen from the top to the 2nd quintile [as it has done recently], it has ultimately declined to the 1st quintile and bottomed in single digits. Based on the latest 10-year earnings average, to reach a P/E10 in the high single digits would require [either] an S&P 500 price decline below 540 [or] for corporate earnings to make a strong and prolonged surge. [Which is it going to be and, if it is the former, when might it occur? Only time will tell! Let me explain.] Words: 1338

RBS is sounding the alarm on risk assets with a call that markets are at risk of falling off the edge of the cliff - by as much as 60-70%! They refer to equity investors as the “worst cult in history….which has no basis in fact, or history, but yet seems universally accepted.” They believe the current downturn could very well “destroy” this “cult”. They’re not just bullish on treasuries –they are super bulls with a 2% target on 10 year yields. Words: 1378

The next decade will surely be especially turbulent, because that's when markets and politics will sort out what the inevitable train wreck in the US entitlement programs will look like. Words: 713

The market is currently slightly over-valued now which is reasonable since stocks offer a much more attractive return than bonds due to low interest rates. Eventually, however, interest rates will get to levels of at least 4% (which is the minimum normal rate on interest rates) and that would justify a P/E closer to 15. I am no prophet but if I had to guess, I would think future returns will be somewhere between Bogle's and Shiller’s estimates, i.e. between 8% and 10%.

Being afflicted with an Austrian outlook can turn many a would-be investor into a permabear. Indeed, if I were truly a hardcore advocate of Austrian investing, my only assets would be a shotgun and a bag of gold because, up until now, I have never come across any writing that attempted to weld Austrian thought onto an investment framework. Words: 953

The book's crucial assumption is that “the market” does have a central value and that the world of stock markets is a “mean reverting” world. As a consequence, the market can be over-valued or under-valued but will, over time, return to its central value. Words: 1317