The weight of the evidence today suggests that stocks are overvalued irrespective of the number of years over which you are smoothing earnings. Historically, that has meant below average forward returns with lower odds of a positive return BUT, while today’s high valuation levels may tilt the odds, but the wide range of possible outcomes remains. Let me explain.
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It’s hard to predict what will trigger the next collapse of stocks, but gold is already on the road to new highs with Janet Yellen gearing up to unleash a new torrent of freshly printed dollars onto global markets. I’d recommend you start building your ark well in advance.
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We have been in the throes of a secular bear market, subject to strong cyclical swings in either direction, since 2000. Currently, based on the 5 leading investment indicators analyzed in this article, the measures all confirm that, from a longer-term perspective, the market remains overvalued. Let's take a look at each to see why that is the case.
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