Tag Archives: stock market bubble

The U.S. economy is literally on perpetual life support. Recent events show too clearly that unless fiscal and monetary stimulus continues, the economy will fail and, by extension, the stock market...

Never before in history have we had a stretch like this without major economic and financial consequences...History has shown that every bubble bursts eventually, and when this bubble bursts, it is going to make 2008 look like a walk in the park.

We believe what we believe will make us rich, what feeds our euphoric confidence that the bubble-music will never stop and our credulity that bubbles which we know will pop will not pop until we've safely cashed out.

If you believe this time is different and you can’t see how over-valued the Dow Index is based upon the MACD technical, then maybe it might be prudent to allow a Doctor to take a Cat-Scan to find out if you have any brains left in your head!

A bubble is the state of a market before the crash. It is a situation in which assets trade at a price that is considerably higher than their intrinsic value and, in my view we're currently in a bubble. The current S&P 500 P/E is at 25.09 (when the historical average is 15.61). The question is, "When will the market crash?" and I see worrying signs that this could happen soon.

Let’s imagine the stock market as a whole bunch of balloons. One or two can pop loudly and everyone will jump and then laugh it off but, eventually, enough balloons will pop that the weight of the debris overwhelms the remaining balloons’ ability to keep the string aloft. Then your whole bunch falls down. In like manner, some kind of catalyst sets off every market collapse.The last balloon to pop isn’t any bigger or smaller than the others; it just happens to be last. What are some candidates for that last balloon?

In their infinite wisdom the Fed thinks they have rescued the economy by inflating asset prices and creating a so called "wealth affect". In reality they have created the conditions for the next Great Depression and now it's just a matter of time...[until] the forces of regression collapse this parabolic structure. When they do it will drag the global economy into the next depression. Let me explain further.

So much analysis we see and hear lately is concerned with whether the stock market is in a bubble or not. The truth of the matter, however, is that bear markets do not begin due to bubble-level valuations being reached and then bursting, but in anticipation of half a dozen mitigating factors as outlined in this article.

If you follow the mainstream financial print media, you may have seen that many prominent publications have recently called this stock market a ‘bubble’ and many are waiting for the elusive stock market crash! In our view, however, such bearish ‘bubble’ sentiment is precisely the reason why, in our opinion, the party is likely to continue for at least another 2-3 years. Here's why & what sectors to take full advantage of.

The benefits of being able to detect a bubble, when you are in its midst, rather than after it bursts, is that you may be able to protect yourself from its consequences. [Below are possible] mechanisms to detect bubbles, how well they work and what to do when you think a particular asset is in one.