Tag Archives: Warren Buffett Indicator

Warren Buffett likes to counsel individual investors to buy-and-hold (specifically, buy an equity index fund and hold it forever). This is a perfect example of “do as I say, not as I do,” as Buffett has successfully timed the market for decades and, [interestingly,] Buffett is now carrying his largest cash position ever in stark contrast to individual investors who now hold their smallest cash positions since the height of the internet bubble. Clearly, he’s timing once again and I’m sure a few of you are wondering just how he manages to do this so successfully. [Let me explain.]

What investors are actually doing with their money – acting out of fear or greed – is a better predictor of future stock market returns than even Buffett’s favorite, and highly touted, total market capitalization-to-GNP valuation measure. How do we use this information as a contrary indicator? How do we put it into practice? Read on.

The 4 fundamentals and technicals discussed in this article accurately called stock market crashes in 2000 and 2007 and these same market metrics are again TODAY warning that a possible financial tsunami is brewing on the horizon. No one knows for certain WHEN the tsunami will hit Wall Street...but, without question, today’s stocks exhibit extremely exaggerated valuations, and extremes never last, so make no mistake, a major stock sell-off looms.

Warren Buffett's favorite indicator - the ratio of the value of U.S. stocks to GDP - is seen by him as a reliable gauge of where the market stands and these days it suggests that all the main indexes are pointing to an imminent 50% crash.