yield curve Archives - munKNEE.com
Thursday , 3 December 2020

Tag Archives: yield curve

This Indicator Is A Remarkably Accurate Warning Indicator For Economic & Market Peril

Would you have appreciated a single number that could have given you a clear and unmistakable warning before the tech stock bubble collapsed? How about an unequivocal mathematical warning in 2006 that major financial trouble was on the way, well before the problems of 2007 and 2008? Well, while these warnings (called yield curve inversions) are quite uncommon, having occurred only three times in the last 35 years- followed relatively quickly by a recession - but are back in the news again, because we just may be nearing another inversion.

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Interest Rates Play A MAJOR Role In the Behavior Of the Stock Market – Here’s Why

To understand how the stock market behaves it is imperative to realize that the stock market is overwhelmingly influenced by interest rates. It’s difficult to overstate this key fact. Interest rates are the bone and marrow of the stock market. More specifically, the stock market is ruled by long-term and short-term interest rates creating an overriding framework for what drives the market in which different sectors do better or worse at different points in the economic cycle. This article explains the behavior more fully.

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Will We or Won't We Have Another Recession Soon – The Case For and Against a Second Dip

I am worried about the possibility of a second dip - of a new recession beginning sometime in the next year or so - before the current recovery has had a chance to produce much improvement. Verbally-intuitively, the case for a second dip still seems pretty overwhelming to me. I take comfort in the knowledge that I tend to have a pessimistic bias, and in the fact that sophisticated quantitative models are generally putting the odds of a second dip quite low. On the other hand, successfully forecasting recessions has not been a strong point of quantitative models. Words: 1433

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Antal Fekete: The Fed Inadvertently Steering Economy on Road to Hell

I would welcome a public debate of my thesis that risk-free bond speculation suppresses the rate of interest and destroys capital in the process. I have challenged neo-classical economists who still consider the open-market operations of the Fed as a ‘refined tool to manage the national economy’. I want them, instead, to see in open-market operations the cancer of the economy responsible for the withering of the world’s prosperity. So far my challenge has fallen upon deaf ears. Words: 2854

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