Friday , 4 October 2024

The State of the Global Economy in 27 Charts

 

Goldman analysts Noah Weisberger and Aleksandar Timcenko are out with their July presentation on the state of the global economy…[and while] the 27 charts paint a decidedly negative picture of the global economy…some of Goldman’s proprietary indicators – including their Global Leading Indicator and the Swirlogram – suggest there may be bright spots.

So says Matthew Boesler in his latest post at www.businessinsider.com which is brought to you courtesy of Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.munKNEE.com (Your Key to Making Money!) and www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com (A site for sore eyes and inquisitive minds). This paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement. Note: Goldman Sachs gave Business Insider permission to feature this presentation.

 

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1. What Recession? This Chart Shows Otherwise

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Deutsche Bank’s Joe LaVorgna tracks payroll tax receipts as a measure of real-time labor market health [see an earlier article on that chart and a host of others here] and the latest data for the current quarter show receipts growing 6% year-over-year. [It brings into question all those purveyors of doom who claim that a recesssion is just around the corner.]

2. Influential Analysts, Economists, Hedge Fund Managers and Traders Watch These Charts Closely – Now You Can Too

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3. These 63 Charts Say: The Economy Is MUCH More Important Than the Election or Either Political Party

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“The most important issue in this year’s election is the economy. Unfortunately, this topic has now been “politicized,” which means that you can’t talk about it without being instantly cheered or jeered by fans of each respective political team…[the truth of the matter, however, is that] the economy is much more important than this year’s election or either political team….The first step is getting past the political blame-game and understanding what’s wrong…. Let’s go to the charts.”

4. David Rosenberg: These 51 Charts Show the Economy to be a Total Disaster

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The U.S. economic recovery has been weak and the looming fiscal cliff threatens to act as a further drag on the economy. Europe is imploding with the chances of a ‘Grexit’ increasing, and Spain’s economy deteriorating and risking contagion. David Rosenberg looks at the state of the U.S. and global economy via 51 depressing charts.

5. Telling It Like It Is: Latest PMIs Reveal Truth About the Global Economy

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The second half of the year has begun, and…one of the best leading indicators that can shed light on the health of the economy is the purchasing managers index (PMI). The latest local readings of the manufacturing PMI for countries around the world collectively…give investors a critical insight into the pace of economic growth by month [and they can be found below.] Words: 550

6. A Balanced Analysis Suggests a Recession is NOT Imminent – Here’s Why

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The permabears are coming out the woodwork. Bad, scary articles and news seem to attract more attention and eyeballs than good news articles or those that offer a counterbalanced view. Whenever someone gets interviewed on US TV, it’s for someone proclaiming the end of the expansion – you never see them interviewing someone offering a counter view of a more positive nature. This article gives you a balanced, opposing view to the tiresome popular perma-bear consensus so that you can make your own balanced decision. [As for our own conclusion, we don’t see imminent recession. Here’s why.] Words: 1315

7. “Joe’s Index” Suggests Joe Sixpack Coming Back to the Consumption Trough

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Econintersect has been playing with an economic index based on the world as seen by Joe Sixpack. For lack of a final name, we have used a development tag of “Joe’s Index” which is based on Joe’s real income and the change in his home value, which, to various degrees, Joe sees as income (and/or wealth) gain or loss. Joe’s Index is indicating Joe Sixpack is coming back to the consumption trough. [Let us explain why we have come to that conclusion.] Words: 380

8. Probability of Global Recession Increasing – Here’s Why

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This past week we received the latest PMI readings for the world as a whole (48.9), the eurozone (46.4), and for 30+ individual countries [Read: Telling It Like It Is: Latest PMIs Reveal Truth About the Global Economy]…and the latest numbers signal contraction and even more so when adjusted to reflect the concentration of GDP by countries/region. [Let me explain.] Words: 600

9. Optimism Regarding U.S. Economy is Misplaced – Here’s Why

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I am amused by the Shadow Weekly Leading Index Project which claims the probability of recession is 31%. I think it is much higher….Let’s take a look at why. Words: 530

10. IMF’s “World Economic Update” & “Global Financial Stability” Reports Based on Questionable Optimism

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The extremely optimistic assumptions on which both of the recent International Monetary Fund’s ‘World Economic Update’ and ‘Global Financial Stability Report’ are based are such that, given all the attendant circumstances, I do not place much weight on either of them. Here is a summary of what the reports have to say and why I have come to that conclusion. Words: 625