Friday , 20 October 2017


A Hypothetical Look At A Possible Economic Apocalypse Outlook for the U.S.

The economic condition of the country continues to decline toward its rendezvous with an, as yet,economic-collapse unknowable catastrophe. As economic and political matters become more desperate, so will what the government considers acceptable. If a debt default cannot be engineered via continuous inflation, it will occur via a direct repudiation of obligations or a quasi-surreptitious one like the hypothetical one presented in this article…a look (not a prediction) at a series of not improbable events that could develop [and which] would change our economic world overnight. Viewed from this perspective, I don’t think such a move or something approximating it is out of the question.

A Possible Economic Apocalypse Outlook for America

…Trust in Congress has fallen to single digits. Similarly, government reports and statistics are increasingly mocked by the public. The media is likened to Pravda because only government-speak is allowed. Distrust, despair and fear are everywhere.

  1. Official unemployment numbers approach 14%. Unofficial estimates of unemployment range from 30 -35%. There are no signs of a turnaround in employment.
  2. The Dow-Jones average hovers around 4,500.
  3. Official GDP has been declining for four consecutive quarters. Independent analysts estimate the true numbers have been declining for two years.
  4. Tax collections continue to drop while Federal spending accelerates.
  5. The rate of foreclosures have doubled…and personal and corporate bankruptcies have reached levels thought impossible.
  6. Major companies have left or announced intentions of leaving the U.S. to avoid the confiscatory taxes and regulations.
  7. College students, unable to find jobs, are emigrating to more favorable economies.
  8. California, Illinois and several other states are in bankruptcy court as are thousand of municipalities….
  9. Welfare and unemployment checks are two months behind…
  10. Social Security checks and Medicare reimbursements are delayed.
  11. Some private pension funds have reduced their payments by 10 – 25%.
  12. Hospitals and doctors refuse to see Medicare patients until Federal reimbursements, already eight months behind schedule, are paid.
  13. Public unions across the country are on strike. Large areas are without teachers, police, firemen or hospital staff.
  14. Food stamps are being rejected at grocery stores because of slow reimbursement and government default risk.
  15. Martial law has been imposed in several cities to counter rioting and looting.
  16. Isolated runs on banks have occurred. Mattress-stuffing is considered less risky than zero interest returns from banks.
  17. The dollar is being rejected by local merchants around the world.
  18. Oil is priced in a weighted basket of currencies of which only 20% represents dollars.
  19. Foreign disinvestment in Treasuries has been accelerating as a result of trade wars, concerns of default and the desperate need for funding at home.
  20. Gold is selling at $2,800 per ounce.
  21. The economy continues to deteriorate despite QE on a scale not even Paul Krugman would have recommended….
  22. The deflationary spiral continues despite incredible money-creation. Banks continue to add more excess reserves. Creditworthy borrowers refuse to borrow. People and businesses everywhere have hunkered down, waiting for the next shoe to drop. Many withdraw funds from the banking system in fear of its collapse.

The Possible (Likely) Emergency Measure

It is against the above economic backdrop that the President of the United States…issues the following short, terse message:

The Federal Government, as a result of our national economic emergency, will be recalling all U.S. dollars effective immediately.  All will be replaced with new currency known as the JohnLawDollar. Each old dollar will be exchanged for three JohnLawDollars. Amounts in checking accounts and savings accounts will automatically convert by tomorrow at 10 AM. Currency in circulation must be taken to a bank and converted within the next 48 hours. Dollars in foreign countries will have 72 hours to convert. All old dollars will be unredeemable and no longer legal tender after the deadlines. All contractual obligations will be honored in JohnLawDollars.

This action is necessary in order to revive our economy from a downturn nearly as severe as the Great Depression. Your new dollars are triple what your old dollars were. With your larger amount of money, we encourage you to go out and buy stuff, lots of it. Your cooperation will revive the economy.

The Intended Solution – and Reality – of the Emergency Measure

The announcement represents:

  • a (undeclared) U.S. default on 67% of its contractual obligations –  including Treasuries, Social Security, Medicare and welfare payments. All debt has been reduced by 2/3s in value. The debt problem (public and private) is what is killing the economy. With one short proclamation, the debt problem has been reduced dramatically.
  • a tripling of the money supply which will:
    • eventually triple prices and wages,
    • cause home prices to soar while mortgage obligations remain fixed and payable out of incomes that will be three times what they are now.

The government will have cut its obligations dramatically and will now be able to pay its bills. The government’s gain will come at the expense of Social Security, Medicare and welfare recipients. Borrowers gain only what lenders lose….Only the amounts “stolen” from foreign investors might be claimed to help the U.S. The rest is nothing more than a redistribution of wealth.

The Likelihood of Such An Emergency Measure

Many believe that the government would never do such a thing. The reality is that this has been their proposed solution for the past couple of years. It is exactly the policy they have tried to implement. There are only two differences between the current policy and the hypothetical one – effectiveness and timing.

…The hypothetical measure is nothing more than the preferred strategy compressed in time. The effects, other than timing, would be identical. Lew Rockwell’s thief analogy is appropriate. What is the difference between a thief that breaks into your house every night and steals a little versus the one who backs up a moving truck and takes everything?  Eventually you end up with an empty house. Only the timing differs….

The political class’ survival is at stake. Eventually anything that extends their rule will be tried. It is not concern for you or the economy that is driving policy, but the preservation of power of an increasingly wounded power elite. Their survival is now driving policy. Unfortunately what benefits them is generally harmful for the economy….

Conclusion

Nothing discussed here or tried by the Administration will solve the economic problems of the country. What I have suggested is what I think could happen. It is not to be confused with good economic policy. Both the hypothetical measure and the more conventional inflationary strategy will lead to hyperinflation.

Inflation is not an economic event. Short of an inept Central Bank, inflation is always a political event. It is never a solution to an economic problem. It is employed out of desperation. When economic and political problems are intractable, the political class is apt to do anything to retain power.

Protect yourself, your family and your wealth in that order. Do not expect any help from Washington. The political class is not your friend, especially when their survival is at stake.

The comments above are edited ([ ]) and abridged (…) excerpts from the original article by “Monty Pelerin”

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3 comments

  1. With its use as THE Worlds currency, the US $ is now king, but we all know what goes up can also go down; so the the real question for me is, “How will the US $ decline in value”?

    A.  If it slowly slides in value, (which I see happening now) then things will get ever more expensive and our Leaders will impose ever more restrictions upon us so that we cannot share our complaints.  Gold and or Silver will continue to climb in value despite the phantom paper trading by the large Banks designed to slow currency “flight”.

    B.  If the US $ plummets in value, say because of a Global Financial Insider Trading Scandal, (Like Lie-Bor), then I see a run on all US Banks as folks try and withdraw as much of their money as possible (like the Greeks did before the Euro vote) which will quickly be stopped as the Fed limits the amounts of all withdrawals; in fact I would be very surprised if the Fed did not already have a plan for this already in effect (Any Bankers out there with insider knowledge?).  Gold and or Silver will cease trading except “under the table” and its value will be set at whatever folks can get. Expect to see some form of fuel and or food rationing/stamps as the Government seeks to “control” the pent up anger/crime causes that these disruptions to all the basic services we now take for granted. I expect to see the poor and or unprepared take to the streets as their money runs out and or they get hungry. Expect marshal law and curfews to be severely enforced at least in the beginning with huge numbers of armed people being “deputized” to help Law Enforcement protect the general population. By controlling Energy and Water, local officials will be able to “encourage” residents to relocate to FEMA-type holding camps where they will stay until a new “system” processes them out, probably with some form of eMoney to prevent anyone from using PM and/or to barter which will become unlawful..

    Remember there are 100,000+ “Nuclear Refugees” still living in “camps” almost a year and a half after the 3/11/11 Fukushima disaster in Japan, it can happen in the USA too because MSM will not be discussing it publicly.

  2. I think this describes the current State of the Our Nation:

    The Congress is (mostly) owned by the Ultra Wealthy.

    The SCOTUS is now in the pocket of the Ultra Wealthy.

    The President is accepting BIG donations from the Ultra Wealthy.

    The Fed is in total support of the Ultra Wealthy.

    The MSM is owned by the Ultra Wealthy.

    The US Dollar is owned by the Ultra Wealthy.

    More of America, than ever before, is OWNED by the Ultra Wealthy.