Wednesday , 21 November 2018


June PMI® Of 60.2% Corresponds To An Annualized 5.2% Increase In GDP!

June’s ISM Manufacturing Report reading surged to 60.2 from last month’s reading of 58.7 which was well ahead of consensus expectations and was tied for the second highest reading of the current expansion.

This version of the original article from the Bespoke Investment Group  has been edited for length (…) and clarity ([ ]) by munKNEE.com to provide a fast & easy read

What’s really impressive about this month’s report is that as the ISM noted in its release, “The past relationship between the PMI® and the overall economy indicates that the PMI® for June (60.2 percent) corresponds to a 5.2 percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis.”

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The table below summarizes the internals of this month’s report and shows relatively strong breadth.

  • On a m/m basis, just 4 out of 10 components showed a m/m decline.
  • On a y/y basis only 3 out of 10 components saw a drop.
  • The largest decline in June relative to May was in Backlog Orders.
  • The biggest increases in June relative to May were Supplier Deliveries and Imports.

The big increase in Supplier Deliveries took that index to its highest level in just over 14 years (chart below).

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Conclusion

The above suggestion that supplies are constrained is hurting overall economic growth.

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